For the first time in five years, travel between Australia and China will reach pre-pandemic capacity. The news follows China’s recent announcement of a trial extension of visa-free travel for Australians from 15 to 30 days, as of 30 November.
The Australia to China route is expected to hit 104% of pre-pandemic seat capacity in January 2025, as Australia welcomes several new routes, and connects more passengers to China. Direct flights between Perth and China started the comeback, resumed for the first time since the pandemic on 28 November.
A further influx of new routes and airlines returning was observed in December, including: China Southern Airlines linking Adelaide to Guangzhou for the first time since the pandemic and Australia connecting directly to China’s new Beijing Daxing Airport on China Southern Airlines from Sydney and Melbourne. New Chinese airline, Juneyao Airlines, entered Australia for the first time, with non-stop flights between Sydney and Shanghai and Melbourne and Shanghai.
“The limited capacity between Australia and China has been one of the key reasons that international airfares have been so high for so long, but this influx of additional flights is the final frontier to lower airfares,” said Flight Centre Corporate global COO Melissa Elf.
“With direct flights between Perth and China resuming for the first time in more than five years, Australia’s first connection to the new Beijing Daxing Airport, and a new carrier entering Australia, capacity between Australia and China will skyrocket.”
“Capacity can be influenced by seasonal travel trends, so we’ll see the connection to China fluctuate between 90-104% of pre-pandemic capacity over the course of the year, but it’s a huge increase on what we’ve seen over the last several years,” Elf said.
“We’re seeing the greatest levels of capacity out of Melbourne, which is going to be consistently above 110% of what it was before the pandemic, throughout 2025. But Perth will see the greatest benefits, as it jumps from around 10% capacity in 2024, to up to 90% by February 2025,” she added.
Elf noted China was a hugely important market for Australia’s education, manufacturing, mining, construction and retail sectors in particular.
“The relationship Australia has with China has long been of great significance to our government for the huge economic impact it has on various industries, and our economy as a result,” she said.
“As we know, greater capacity means better airfares for passengers, and as more capacity into China is welcomed, we’re seeing fares start to soften.
“An economy fare between China and Australia is about 14% cheaper over the last six months (June–November 2024), compared to the same period in the year previous. We can expect this trend to continue with the introduction of extensive new capacity over the coming month or so,” Elf said.
“Shanghai, Beijing and Guangzhou are the top three most heavily booked destinations in China for our corporate travellers, so to see these three cities welcome more traffic, both in-bound and out-bound, really speaks to the value of the relationship – both for tourism and business.”
